Article
SA 2023/24 summer crop production forecasts lowered notably
Published: 29/02/2024
The excessive heat and scant rains across South Africa are a significant concern for farmers, particularly in the summer grains and oilseed-producing regions. The 2023/24 summer crop season started on favourable footing. We received widespread rains, which was unusual in an El Niño season, which would typically start with drier weather conditions. Those good early-season rains led us to believe the country would have a decent harvest in the 2023/24 production season. But this view has now changed. We worry about possible poor harvests if there is no widespread rain during these closing days of February into the first week of March. Indeed, the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) also fears the possible decline in the summer grains and oilseed harvest. Its first production estimate for the 2023/24 season placed the summer grains and oilseed harvest at 17,4 million tonnes, down 13% y/y. This is a function of a reduction in planted area and the expected lower yields in some regions.
- The excessive heat and scant rains across South Africa are a significant concern for farmers, particularly in the summer grains and oilseed-producing regions. The 2023/24 summer crop season started on favourable footing. We received widespread rains, which was unusual in an El Niño season, which would typically start with drier weather conditions. Those good early-season rains led us to believe the country would have a decent harvest in the 2023/24 production season. But this view has now changed. We worry about possible poor harvests if there is no widespread rain during these closing days of February into the first week of March. Indeed, the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) also fears the possible decline in the summer grains and oilseed harvest. Its first production estimate for the 2023/24 season placed the summer grains and oilseed harvest at 17,4 million tonnes, down 13% y/y. This is a function of a reduction in planted area and the expected lower yields in some regions.
- A
closer look at the data shows that white and yellow maize harvest could be
7,0 million tonnes (down 17% y/y) and 7,3 million tonnes (down 8% y/y),
thus placing the overall maize production estimate at 14,3 million tonnes
(down 13% y/y). The challenge for maize is the possible poor yield in some
regions as the area plantings are higher than the 2022/23 season. While
this expected harvest is significantly lower than the previous season, if
it materializes, it would still meet South Africa's annual maize consumption
of roughly 12,00 million tonnes, and the country would remain a net
exporter of maize, although a much lower volume than the previous years.
- The
2023/24 soybean harvest is estimated at 2,1 million tonnes, down 23% y/y.
This decline is a function of moderately lower area plantings and possible
yield decline in various regions. Similarly to maize, a harvest of this
size would still keep South Africa a net exporter of soybeans.
- The
sunflower seed harvest estimate is 671 100 tonnes, down 8%/y. The area
plantings are moderately up from the previous year, which means the major
concern is possibly lower yields. The 2023/24 groundnut harvest estimate
is 64 395 (up 22% y/y), sorghum is at 110 780 tonnes (up 17%), and dry
beans are at 59 880 tonnes (up 19%).
- Overall,
much of the crop prospects' damage occurred this month. The significance
of February cannot be overemphasized in South Africa's agriculture.
Significant summer grains such as maize, sunflower seed, and soybeans are
in pollination stages this month. The crop should ideally have higher
moisture levels during this pollination stage to boost yields. The crop
has entered this growth stage with limited moisture across the major
growing regions in Free State, North West, and Mpumalanga, amongst other provinces.
- In
conversations with farmers and agricultural analysts, the consensus is
that the last two weeks of February are critical for the crop. This means
South Africa must receive widespread rains this week or next week for the
crop to recover from its current worrying state.
- The
significant worry is that the majority of the crops are rainfed. The
irrigation regions of summer crops will benefit from the better dam
levels. Still, only about 20% of maize and 15% of soybeans are under
irrigation.
- Importantly,
it is unclear how much of the current heat strain on crops the Crop
Estimate Committee has factored into these estimates. Perhaps the key
figures that will provide a better sense of the summer crop harvest is the
March 2024 release, when the Committee has fully considered the weather
events and how much of the crop would have successfully pollinated.
- In
essence, while we started the 2023/24 summer crop season with optimism and
even estimated that harvest would be decent at above-average levels, the
outlook is now challenged by the excessive heat and limited rainfall
across the major crop-growing regions.