Article
SA sees strong agricultural machinery sales in April, but the path ahead is uncertain
Published: 11/05/2026
Agricultural machinery sales remain robust in South Africa, supported by orders some farmers likely placed before the current global challenges. The farmers’ finances over the past few months were boosted by the ample harvest in the 2024-25 season, on the back of beneficial La Niña rains. Therefore, in our interpretation of these recent sales, we ought to be careful not to view the data as an indication that the agricultural sector is unaffected by rising input costs, lower agricultural commodity prices, and lingering uncertainty about the weather outlook heading into the 2026-27 season.
• Agricultural machinery sales remain robust in South Africa, supported by orders some farmers likely placed before the current global challenges. The farmers’ finances over the past few months were boosted by the ample harvest in the 2024-25 season, on the back of beneficial La Niña rains. Therefore, in our interpretation of these recent sales, we ought to be careful not to view the data as an indication that the agricultural sector is unaffected by rising input costs, lower agricultural commodity prices, and lingering uncertainty about the weather outlook heading into the 2026-27 season.
• Admittedly, the 2025-26 production season is reasonably better in terms of output for various summer grains, oilseeds, sugarcane, fruits, nuts, wine, and vegetables. The summer grains and oilseeds harvest is at record levels. But the downside of this is lower commodity prices, with maize currently down 20 to 30% and soybean prices down by 10 to 15% from a year ago. This context is valuable as we consider the long-term perspective of agricultural machinery sales.
• In April, tractor sales totalled 548 units, up 4% from the same period a year ago, according to data from the South African Agricultural Machinery Association. The combine harvest sales amounted to 52 units, up by 13% from April 2025. This uptick in sales comes after a slight slump in March 2026 sales, a change from a 14-month period of strong tractor sales on the back of better harvests in the past few seasons.
• What makes us worry more about the path ahead is not necessarily a poor harvest. The harvest is ample. For example, the data released by the Crop Estimates Committee at the end of April 2026 placed South Africa’s 2025-26 summer grain and oilseed harvest at 20.8 million tonnes, up 1% year-on-year. This yearly improvement in the overall harvest is underpinned by upward revisions to major grains and oilseeds, particularly maize, soybeans, and sunflower seed.
• If we zoom in on the major grains, the 2025-26 maize production estimate is 16.8 million tonnes, up 1% from last season, and the largest harvest on record. This is due to the back of expansion in area plantings and the expected large yields. The 2025-26 soybean harvest is estimated at a record 2.8 million tonnes, largely due to expected higher yields in some regions and large area plantings. In other field crops, the South African sugar industry is anticipating a recovery in production compared to 2025.
• We also saw strong performance in the fruit products. For example, the stone fruit and pome industries’ export volumes have increased by 12% compared to the previous year, on the back of a large harvest. The production conditions for vegetables remain broadly favourable.
• The source of our concern is the ongoing war in the Middle East and the subsequent surge in fertiliser and fuel prices. These two inputs account for only about half of input costs in some field crops, and when prices surge, farmers feel financial strain. Moreover, forecasts of an El Niño in the season ahead will likely place additional strain on the farming sector, as farmers face lower commodity prices for harvested crops, specifically grains, oilseeds, and sugarcane.
• Ultimately, while near-term machinery sales may remain encouraging, linked to orders placed before the current disruptions, we worry about the path ahead for tractor and combine harvester sales. This year may mark a shift from the period of strong agricultural machinery sales we observed at the beginning of 2025.