Article
SA's agricultural exports continued on an upbeat path in Q3, 2025
Published: 18/11/2025
South Africa's agricultural exports have remained strong since the start of the year despite significant trade policy shifts and uncertainty. The cumulative value of agricultural exports for the first three quarters of the year is US$11.7 billion, representing a 10% increase from the corresponding period in 2024.
- South Africa's agricultural exports have remained strong since the start of the year despite significant trade policy shifts and uncertainty. The cumulative value of agricultural exports for the first three quarters of the year is US$11.7 billion, representing a 10% increase from the corresponding period in 2024.
- The exports have been strong every quarter. The latest data for Q3 shows that South Africa's agricultural exports totalled US$4.7 billion, up 13% from the same period a year ago. This is due to higher volumes of various product exports and better commodity prices.
- The products that dominated the exports list in the second quarter of the year were mainly citrus, nuts, apples, pears, maize, wine, sugar, fruit juices, berries, grapes, pineapples, avocados, and soybean, among other products. Although there remains a need for further improvement in port efficiency, we have witnessed a notable improvement compared to recent months. We observed a similar experience in the past two quarters. This has supported export activity and illustrates the gains from the ongoing policy reforms in the South African network industries.
- From a regional perspective, the African continent maintained the lion's share of South Africa's agricultural exports in the third quarter of 2025, accounting for 34% of the total value. The products leading the exports list in the African continent were maize, maize meal, apples and pears, wheat, fruit juices, wine, nuts, sugar, vegetable oils, and live animals, amongst other products.
- As a collective, Asia and the Middle East were the second-largest agricultural markets, accounting for 25% of total agricultural exports in the third quarter of 2025. Citrus, nuts, apples, pears, wool, sugar, berries, grapes, beef, mutton, maize, apricots, cherries, and peaches dominated the exports to the Asian and Middle Eastern regions in the third quarter of 2025.
- The EU was South Africa's third-largest agricultural market, accounting for a 23% share in the third quarter of this year. The exports to this region primarily included citrus, wine, grapes, nuts, fruit juices, dates, apricots, figs, mangoes, avocados, guavas, apples, pears, berries, and sugar, among other products.
- The Americas region accounted for 6% of South Africa's agricultural exports in the third quarter of the year. The main exported products include citrus, grapes, wine, fruit juices, apples, pears, apricots, and nuts, among other agricultural products.
- Given ongoing concerns about the higher tariffs South Africa faces in the U.S., it is worth highlighting that after some exporters took advantage of the 90-day pause of the higher tariffs and exported more volume than usual during that period in the second quarter of the year, we saw some cooling of exports in the third quarter. Notably, South Africa's agricultural exports to the U.S. decreased by 11% in the third quarter of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, at US$144 million. The composition of the products hasn't changed much; it is mainly citrus, wine, fruit juices, and nuts, amongst other typical agricultural exports to the U.S.
- South Africa's agricultural exports to the U.S. accounted for 3% share in the overall farm products exports in the third quarter of 2025 (which is part of the 6% exports to the Americas region we mentioned above).
- Again, the 3% share of the U.S. in the overall South African agricultural exports is not a small value, as few specific industries are primarily involved in these agricultural exports. These are mainly citrus, grapes, wine, and fruit juices. Since the start of AGOA, the percentage share of South Africa's agricultural exports to the U.S. has remained at these levels. From now on, a great deal hinges on whether South Africa succeeds in securing favourable trade terms with the U.S.
- It is also worth noting that the U.S. has decided to modify its reciprocal tariffs and exempt certain food products, thereby easing agricultural trade friction, which is costly to both exporting countries and U.S. consumers. The exempted products include coffee and tea, fruit juices, cocoa, and spices, as well as avocados, bananas, coconuts, guavas, limes, oranges, mangoes, plantains, pineapples, various peppers, tomatoes, beef, and additional fertilizers. From a South African perspective, it appears that oranges, macadamia nuts and fruit juices will benefit from the exemption.
- The rest of the world, including the United Kingdom, accounted for 12% of South African agricultural exports in the third quarter of 2025.
- The country also imports various agricultural products. In the third quarter of 2025, South Africa's agricultural imports totalled US$1.9 billion, a 2% decline year-over-year, according to data from Trade Map. The result is due to slightly lower values and volumes of major products South Africa imports, such as wheat, palm oil, poultry, and whiskies. Still, the cumulative agricultural imports in the first three quarters of the year are US$5.7 billion, up by 4% from the corresponding period in 2024.
- As we have highlighted on various occasions, South Africa lacks favourable climatic conditions for growing rice and palm oil and thus relies on imports of these products. Regarding wheat, South Africa imports nearly half of the annual consumption. In the Free State province, which was once one of the country's major wheat-growing regions, production has declined notably over time due to unfavourable weather conditions and profitability challenges of wheat compared to other crops. Meanwhile, imports account for around 20% of the annual domestic poultry consumption.
- Consequently, when we account for the exports and imports, South Africa's agriculture sector recorded a trade surplus of US$2.7 billion in the third quarter of 2025, up 28% from the previous year.
- In the current environment of heightened geoeconomic tensions, South Africa's export-oriented agricultural sector must work to maintain its current export markets and expand into new ones. The focus for both policymakers and agribusinesses and organized agriculture should be on the following aspects:
o First, South Africa should maintain its focus on improving logistical efficiency. This entails investments in port and rail infrastructure, as well as improving roads in farming towns.
o Second, South Africa must work diligently to maintain its existing markets in the EU, Africa, Asia, the Middle East, and the Americas.
o Lastly, the South African Department of Trade, Industry and Competition, the Department of International Relations and Cooperation, and the Department of Agriculture should lead the way in expanding exports to current markets and exploring new ones. South Africa should expand market access to key BRICS countries, including China, India, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. The emphasis on the BRICS grouping should be on the need to lower import tariffs and address artificial phytosanitary barriers that hinder deeper trade within this grouping. The discussion in BRICS should move beyond the general rhetoric of intentions to meaningful trade arrangements.
o There is also a need for an increase in focus on the broader Asia and Middle East regions, with a similar purpose of securing lower tariffs and the removal of phytosanitary barriers.