South Africa's rice imports to remain roughly unchanged in 2022

Published: 19/04/2022

Rice ranks second in the four major agricultural products that South Africa imports annually and account for 7% of the US$6,9 billion spent on agricultural products imports in 2021. Other products are wheat, palm oil and poultry products. In volumes terms, South Africa imported about 1,1 million tonnes of rice, both for annual consumption and exports to the neighbouring countries. The latest data from the International Grains Council (IGC) suggests that this volume could remain unchanged in 2022. Thus, the IGC has maintained its estimate for this year at 1,1 million tonnes (Exhibit 1).



Rice ranks second in the four major agricultural products that South Africa imports annually and account for 7% of the US$6,9 billion spent on agricultural products imports in 2021. Other products are wheat, palm oil and poultry products. In volumes terms, South Africa imported about 1,1 million tonnes of rice, both for annual consumption and exports to the neighbouring countries. The latest data from the International Grains Council (IGC) suggests that this volume could remain unchanged in 2022. Thus, the IGC has maintained its estimate for this year at 1,1 million tonnes (Exhibit 1).

 The imports are usually evenly spread across the year, with a slight peak in volumes in the last quarter of each year. About 70% of South Africa's rice is usually imported from Thailand, with other notable suppliers being India, Pakistan, China and Vietnam. Most of these countries currently expect a reasonably good harvest, which should boost the availability of supplies for exports. Hence, the USDA forecasts the global rice production conditions presently at 513 million tonnes in the 2021/22 season, up by 1% from the previous season. Consequently, the 2021/22 global rice stocks are forecast at 189 million tonnes, up by 1% from the prior season.

 What is worth noting is that the Russia-Ukraine war has disrupted the global grains market and raised concerns about the potential increase in rice demand in the coming months as some countries could start using rice to substitute for maize and other grains. Interestingly, while other grains prices have remained volatile the past few weeks, rice prices have been reasonably stable, and we have not yet observed a drastic increase in demand.