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A Decline in Fuel Prices is a Welcome Development at this Crop Planting Season in South Africa
It is increasingly clear that we will get a reprieve on fuel prices in November 2025. The diesel price (0.05% wholesale inland) could decline by 33 cents per litre, while the petrol price (95 ULP inland) could fall by 57 cents per litre.
The relatively stronger ZAR/USD, combined with a reasonably stable oil price for much of the month, are the major driver of the decline in fuel prices.
This is a welcome development, and bodes well for the South African agricultural sector. We are in a period of high fuel consumption in South Africa's agriculture. The planting season for summer grains and oilseed is underway. Fuel also accounts for a notable share of grain farmers' input costs, about 13%.
We will also soon be in a busy period for winter grains and oilseeds, with harvest ahead. Beyond the farmers, agribusinesses will also benefit from lower costs, particularly in logistics. It is worth noting that roughly 81% of maize, 76% of wheat and 69% of soybeans in South Africa are transported by road.
On average, 75% of national grains and oilseeds are transported by road, as is a substantial share of other agricultural products.
But these benefits may not last for long. With the U.S. now imposing sanctions on Russia and oil prices rising, it is possible that some of these lower fuel prices could be reversed in the coming months. We already see oil prices rising, though at a lower level.
Still, for now, lower fuel prices are a welcome development and support the agricultural sector, which is at a busy time of planting the 2025-26 season.
Email: wandile@agbiz.co.za
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