The possible sunnier weather in the weeks ahead will aid South Africa's crop harvest

• 01 May 2025
• 0 Comments
• Agbiz
• Wandile Sihlobo

One challenge that has been worrying many people in South Africa's agriculture sector recently is the excessive rainfall across the country.

While the rains are always welcome and help boost crop production and grazing veld, we only need them for a specific period – during crop growing stages – and in moderation.

The summer grains and oilseeds have matured across South Africa, and some areas are ready to harvest. However, the activity couldn't gain momentum because of the excessively wet conditions.

Fortunately, the weather outlook appears to be improving. The weather forecast for the next two weeks suggests that we could see some sunshine, which will aid in drying the fields and enable field work and harvesting over time. Importantly, there will be clear skies in the second week of May, and I hope the following weeks will continue to have such an outlook.

However, this does not alter our view of the potential harvest size; it primarily affects the quality of the crop in certain areas. On April 30, we are due to receive the Crop Estimate Committee's (CEC) third production forecast for summer grains and oilseeds, which typically provides a stronger indication of how the season's harvest will unfold as the crop has progressed, mainly past the pollination stage.

The outlook for the 2024-25 summer grains and oilseeds remains broadly positive. At the end of March, CEC projections placed South Africa's 2024-25 grains and oilseed production at 18,0 million tonnes, up 16% from the previous season. This comprises maize, sunflower seed, soybeans, groundnuts, sorghum and dry beans. While some regions planted late by roughly a month, the crop benefited from the excellent rains in March when it was in the pollination stages.

Moreover, although the weather has been harsh over the past few weeks, I remain optimistic that this will be a recovery season for South Africa's agriculture (including field crops, horticulture, and livestock).

We have already seen estimates from the Pretoria office of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) that publish slightly higher estimates for some grains than those of the Crop Estimates Committee.

The USDA forecasts South Africa's 2024-25 commercial maize production at 15,3 million tonnes, up 20% from the previous season. Meanwhile, the CEC forecasts South Africa's 2024-25 maize harvest at a slightly lower figure of 14,6 million tonnes, up 13% year-on-year.

There are also differences in projections of the non-commercial maize harvest, with the USDA presenting a somewhat more optimistic figure. Thus, we believe that there remains a likelihood that the CEC could adjust its figures slightly.

Again, the one significant risk for the 2024-25 summer grains and oilseed is the quality challenges in crops in regions that are planted early in the season.

The improving weather prospects will only ensure we don't see notable crop quality damage.

We will learn more about its extent when the harvest gains momentum in the coming weeks and months. The encouraging news so far is the improving weather conditions.

Email: wandile@agbiz.co.za

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