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The Southern Africa region’s agriculture faces a real challenge in the upcoming 2026-27 season
Not to be alarmist, but in all these conversations about higher fertiliser prices, I am even more concerned about the broader Southern Africa region.
The farmers in countries such as Malawi, Zimbabwe and Zambia, amongst others, tend to be quite sensitive to input cost increases. In 2022, at the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, which sparked a surge in fertiliser prices, we saw a decline in fertiliser use in these countries, resulting in poor crop yields. Indeed, there was also a mild drought in these periods which added to the poor crop yields.
We subsequently observed an increase in food insecurity in some countries. But at the time, the World Food Programme, amongst others, was still fairly active, and jumped in to assist in areas most in need.
Right now, we no longer have the more active World Food Programme, since the U.S. leadership started slashing the budget to these aid organizations.
So, we are heading into another year of possibly another El Niño-induced drought, with likely higher input costs, which most likely lead to food insecurity. But we have very little consumer protection in the broader Southern Africa region than in the recent past.
The governments in the region must start contemplating about how they would face such a scenario as the year progresses.
Indeed, this is not an immediate issue, as the season starts only in October 2026, and the real impact of all this would be clear at a household level in 2027. In the near term, the food price increases we will see are fuel induced, not caused by the adjustments in farmer plantings or agricultural products supply constraints.
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