Concerns regarding the sustainability of South Africa’s wheat industry were raised during a special meeting of the Wheat Forum Steering Committee  in October 2025. Following this meeting, the National Agricultural Marketing Council (NAMC) was requested to conduct a formal Section 7 investigation into the wheat industry.

As part of Agbiz Grain’s preparation for the Section 7 investigation, an analysis of wheat prices since the introduction of the free-market system in South Africa (2000) was undertaken. Monthly price data for the JSE/Safex December Wheat Futures Contract, supplied by Frikkie Barnard of AFGRI in Moorreesburg, were analysed for the period 2000 to 2026; the data was grouped into three sub-periods, namely 2000 to 2009, 2010 to 2019, and 2020 to 2026.

Wheat price data

The monthly average price of the JSE/ Safex December Wheat Futures Contract was used to calculate a monthly price index, with the average price for the marketing season  (January to December) used as the base value (index = 100).

The resulting monthly index values are presented as a heat  map (Table 1), where shades of red indicate index values above 100 and shades of blue indicate values below 100. This provides a visual representation of relative price performance throughout the year.

A strike-rate analysis was then conducted to determine the percentage of years in which the monthly price index exceeded 100. For example, a strike rate of 50% indicates that, during a specific sub-period, the price for that month exceeded the seasonal average in half of the years. The strike rate for the three sub-periods is presented in Figures 1 to 3.

Figure 1 shows that, during the 2000 to

2009 period,  only July, August, October, and November recorded  strike rates of 50% or higher, with November recording the highest strike rate of 60%.

During the 2010 to 2019 period (Figure 2), the strike rate for March declined to 30%. April, May, and June remained unchanged from the previous decade at 40%. August maintained a strike rate of 50%, while October and November increased to 70%. December also exceeded the 50% strike rate, recording 60%.

The results for the 2020 to 2026 period (Figure 3) reveal a notable shift in seasonal price patterns. April recorded  a strike rate above 50%, while May increased to 80%. August achieved a strike rate of 100%. September, October, and November each recorded  strike rates of 50%, whereas December declined sharply to 20%.Precision marketing Heleen Viljoen, senior economist at Grain SA, highlighted the importance of precision farming at the production level during the 10 October meeting.

Precision farming relies on technologies such as GPS, sensors, drones, and satellite imagery to collect data. This information is analysed and interpreted to optimise crop production by improving input efficiency (variable rates), reducing production costs, increasing yields, minimising environmental impact, and supporting informed farm management decisions.

Yield is one element of the farm production value equation, and price the other. This raises an important question. Click here to read full report.

By Ruben Fourie and Dr Charl van der Merwe